小微企业风险测度、不良容忍度及其风险控制研究

Small and Micro Company Risk Measurement,Bad Loan Tolerance and Risk Control

本文以违约概率为小微企业风险的测度标准,建立了基于财务与非财务因素的小微企业风险计量模型。计量结果表明:除流动比率等少数指标外,大部分财务指标对判断小微企业违约概率不具有显著性;非财务因素中,反映小微企业资金状况的存贷比率指标具有较高的显著性,这说明现阶段部分商业银行在小微企业审查审批和贷后管理过程中将小微企业资金结算情况作为风险评价的重要依据,具有一定的科学性和准确性;小微企业的下游客户集中程度对判断小微企业违约概率也有较大的显著性,这说明小微企业的销售渠道是评价小微企业风险程度的重要要素。

Probability of default was taken as the measure of small and micro businesses＇ risk in this article. A risk model of small and micro businesses was built based on financial and non-financial factors. Measurement results indicated that most financial indices were not significant in judging small and micro businesses＇ probability of default, except only few indices such as liquidity ratio, etc. Among non-financial factors, the deposit-loan ratio, which reflects small and micro businesses＇ funds conditions, possessed a higher significance. At the present stage, it was scientific and accurate for some commercial banks to take the capital settlement as an important basis for risk evaluation of small and micro businesses, in the process of re- view and approval and post-loan management. The concentration of small and micro businesses＇ downstream customers were significant in judging probability of default of these enterprises. This proved that small and micro businesses＇ sales channels were a crucial factor of evaluating their risk degrees. Furthermore, this article discussed how to decrease non-performing loan ratio of small and micro businesses loans of commercial banks.