人口年龄结构、储蓄率与经常项目差额——基于亚洲13个国家面板数据的实证检验

Demography, National Savings Rate and Current Account——Empirical Analysis on Panel Data of 13 EastAsian Countries

从人口年龄结构角度解释经常项目差额是一个中长期的结构性研究视角。东亚国家的典型事实分析表明,人口年龄结构很可能是可贸易品在国家间转移的重要决定因素。面板数据实证检验发现:在开放经济条件下,经常项目差额受到国内储蓄、投资等经济变量的显著性影响,经常项目差额与国内投资率存在此消彼长的关系;少儿人口比重和老年人口比重与经常项目差额存在反向关系。可以推断,中国在人口总抚养比较低的"人口红利"期贸易顺差换得的外汇储备具备了应对未来老龄化社会的战略价值。

Explaining the current account balance from the demography is a long-term structural perspective. The typical analysis of East Asian countries shows that the demography is likely to be an important determinant of the transfer of tradable goods between countries. Empirical Analysis on the Panel Data found： in an open economy, the current account balance was determined by domestic savings and investment, and there was a shift in the relationship between them. Proportion of the chil- dren and the elderly population had a reverse relationship with the current account balance. It can be inferred that the foreign re- serves of China surpluses during the demographic dividend period has the strategic value of the deal with the future of an aging society.