美、英、法三国服务业增长的部门影响分析及启示

Analysis and Revelation of the Impact of Services Sector Growth in America,England and France

基于服务业的内部结构影响总产出增长关系,本文利用美国、英国、法国1980-2008年的时序数据,测算了三国服务业各部门的总产出弹性,计算了14个年份服务业各部门的贡献率。结果显示,三国生产服务业、流通服务业的总产出弹性高于社会服务业、生活服务业和政府服务业;生产服务业、社会服务业的贡献率在波动中增大,生活服务业的波动比较稳定,流通服务业、政府服务业则在波动中减小。最后概括了三国的相关趋势规律,并以此提出中国第三产业结构性增长的一些建议。

Based on the functional relation of internal structure influencing total output growth in service economy, this paper uses time data of America, England and France from 1980 to 2003, estimates the total output elasticity of service sectors, and calculates the contribution ratio of 11 years. The research conclusion shows that the total output elasticity of producer service and circulate service are higher than social service, living service and government service. The contribution ratio of producer service and social service raises in fluctuation, living service keeps sta- ble; however, circulate service and government service decrease. The three countries have shown higher trend of modern structural growth. Finally, this paper summarizes the law of service trend of the three countries, and makes some proposals for the tertiary industry structural growth pattern in China.