人民币汇率与我国对外贸易差额关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of The Relationship Between RMB Exchange Rate and China's Trade Balance

采用我国1994—2011年的年度数据,运用数量经济方法,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用Granger因果检验对人民币汇率与我国对外贸易差额的内在联系进行实证分析,结果表明,人民币汇率与我国对外贸易差额不仅存在负相关关系,而且存在Granger意义上的单向因果关系,即人民币持续升值不仅不会使我国对外贸易差额下降,反而是导致贸易顺差不断上升的重要原因。

Using annual data from 1994 to 2011, adopting integration and conlntegratlon method and Granger causality test, this paper empirically analyzes the connection between RMB exchange rate and China＇ s trade balance. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between RMB exchange rate and China＇ s trade balance, and a one-way causality, that is, the RMB appreciation will not lead to the decline of China＇ s trade surplus, but the important reason to let the yuan rise.