我国中部地区6省出口增长的驱动因素研究

Study on Factors Influencing Exports Growth of Six Central Provinces in China

本文以中部地区6省1991-2010年的统计数据为依据,运用协整分析和误差修正模型等方法,对中部地区6省的出口驱动因素进行了实证分析。研究表明,生产总值、进口、公路网密度、铁路网密度、人均电话数、人均可支配收入、滞后一期的出口额对出口影响程度很大,外商直接投资和乡村从业人数对出口影响不显著,而资本累积反向作用于出口。最后对中部地区6省未来的出口增长提出了合理的建议。

This paper makes empirical analysis on relevant factors of provinces exports by using the econometric methods such as co-integration and ECM based on 1991-2009 data. Empirical studies have shown that gross domestic product, import, road density, rail density, per capita disposable income, lag one length of the export are main factors of the determinant of six provinces exports, and foreign direct investment has no significant influence on the exports, while capital accumulation, rural employment, phone average user have effect on developing exports in the opposite direction. Finally this paper comes up with some basic policy proposals for improving exports in the six central provinces in the future.