民生财政支出对居民消费影响效应研究

A Research of the Effect of Livelihood Fiscal Expenditure on Household Consumption in China

随着市场经济的发展,民生财政支出与居民消费的关系应该引起高度重视。运用计量经济学方法,选取1978-2011年的实际数据,对民生财政支出的消费影响效应进行实证分析的结果显示:在民生财政支出的长期消费传导过程中,政府民生财政支出与居民消费、居民消费与经济增长均是高度正相关的;而在短期消费传导过程中,仅第一阶段即政府民生财政支出对居民消费的促进作用得到了验证,第二阶段的影响效应并不明显。说明从长期来看,增加民生财政支出有利于经济增长,而在短期这一促进作用尚不明显。针对财政支出消费传导现状,应对相关政策进行调整。

With the development of market economy, we should pay more attention to the rela- tions between livelihood fiscal spending and household consumption. Applying the method of econo- metrics, with the actual data from 1978 to 2011, we make an empirical analysis on the consumption effect on fiscal expenditure, and the result shows that during the process of a long-term consump- tion conduction of livelihood fiscal expenditure, there is a positive relationship between governmen- tal fiscal expenditure and household consumption, and household consumption and economic growth. However, during the process of a short-term consumption conduction, only the first stage, that is, the promoting effect of governmental fiscal expenditure on household consumption is testi- fied, and the effect of second stage is not obvious. It shows that in a long term, increasing liveli- hood fiscal expenditure is beneficial for economic growth, but in a short term its effect is not obvi- ous. We should make adiustment to the policy in view of the present situation of consumption con- duction of fiscal expenditure.