搭配型财政政策的宏观经济效应研究——基于中国月度数据的经验分析

On the Macroeconomic Effect of Composite Fiscal Policy——based on the Empirical Analysis of Monthly Data in China

为了比较不同的财政政策组合对宏观经济调控的效果,本文将政策搭配的思想放在财政政策研究的框架下,利用有关月度数据,模拟了8种财政政策组合对主要宏观经济变量的冲击效应。研究发现:从刺激产出的角度而言,赤字化减税政策和双松的财政政策工具的效果一样,如要运用平衡型预算的政策工具组合,应该采用逆向平衡型;双松的财政政策工具搭配对消费的挤入效应最大,赤字化减税政策对私人消费的挤入效应则很微弱;而对于投资来说,赤字化减税政策和双松的财政政策工具搭配的效果俱佳,而赤字化支出政策容易造成投资波动;正向平衡型预算政策工具会造成价格水平上升,而其他工具组合则会平抑物价。

In order to compare the effect of different fiscal policy on macroeconomic control, in this paper, we analyze the shock effect of 8 types of composite fiscal policy on main macroeconomic variables by using related monthly data from the perspective of fiscal policy research. It shows that as for the level of stimulating the output, the effect of both deficit financed tax cut fiscal policy and two-expansionary fiscal policy is the same, if the government want to adopt the balanced budget spending policy, the reverse direction balanced budget spending policy should be applied. Secondly, in comparison with the deficit financed tax cut fiscal policy, the two-expansionary fiscal policy has the most obvious effect on consumption; thirdly, the deficit financed tax cut fiscal policy and the two-expansionary fiscal policy play the same role in stimulating the investment, and the deficit spending fiscal policy will easily cause investment fluctuation fourthly, the balanced budget spend- ing policy can lead a rise in price level, while other fiscal policy will stabilize the price level.