消费习惯下我国城镇居民持久收入的边际消费倾向——基于缓冲储备模型的理论与实证分析

The Marginal Propensity to Consume of Permanent Income of Urban Residents with Habit Formation——based on the Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Buffer Stock Model

若将消费习惯纳入Carroll的缓冲储备模型进行理论分析,则显示出消费习惯下的边际消费倾向(MPCP)相比无消费习惯时要小,且消费习惯强度越大,MPCP减小更为明显。若利用卡尔曼滤波法估计我国城镇居民的消费习惯强度,并数值模拟消费习惯下与无消费习惯时的MPCP,且对结果进行分析比较就会发现:我国城镇居民消费习惯强度整体呈上升趋势,对消费的影响逐渐增强;而在消费习惯的影响下,MPCP持续走低,整体呈下降趋势,相比无消费习惯时平均下降幅度从1998-2002年间的0.101上升至2003-2009年间的0.217。显然,消费习惯是导致我国城镇居民MPCP处于低位运行的重要影响因素,因而从居民消费习惯调节上来启动消费的政策不容忽视。

In this paper, we introduce the habit formation into buffer-stock model of Carroll （2009）, based on theoretical analysis, we find that the MPCP with habit formation is smaller than that without habit formation, and the stronger the consumption habit is, the more obvious the MPCP decreases. We estimate the strength of consumption habit of urban residents, and numerical- ly simulate the MPCP with and without consumption habit, and then make an analysis on the re suit. It shows that there is an overall downward trend of consumption habit strength, and its im- pact on consumption gradually increases; under the influence of consumption habit, MPCP continu ously declines, and there is an overall declining trend. The average decline extent ascends to 0. 217 during the years of 2003-2009 from 0. 101 during the years of 1998 ~ 2002. Thus, consumption habit is an important influential factor causing MPCP of urban residents to operate at a low level, therefore, we should not neglect the residents＇ consumption policies from the perspective of consum- er habits.