低碳背景下考虑发用电侧不确定性的社会福利均衡仿真研究

Simulation Research on Social Welfare Equilibrium Considering Uncertainty in Generation and Consumption Sides Under Development of Low-Carbon Power Grids

实现电源侧可再生能源的规模化并网,提高用户的需求侧响应,提高能源利用效率是未来实现电力系统低碳发展的重要举措。构建了考虑可再生能源大规模并网和用户基于电价需求响应不确定的长期、中期和短期市场均衡模型,建立了考虑环境成本的社会福利最大化目标函数,实现发电环境成本的内部化。同时,引入混沌量子遗传算法对模型进行求解,得到了电力市场均衡情况下达到社会福利最大化时常规能源电厂和可再生能源电厂的发电容量情况,以及相关税收、补贴政策的搭配组合。最后,研究了市场条件及存在最高限价条件下可再生能源并网对社会福利的影响,验证了所构建模型和引入算法的可行性和合理性。

It is an important measure for the implementation of low-carbon development of power girds in future to implement the scale-grid connection of renewable energy resources at power supply side, enhance demand side response of power consumers and improve efficiency of energy utilization. The electricity market equilibrium models for long-, medium- and short-term, in which the scale-connection of renewable energy resources and the electricity price-based uncertainty of demand side response of power consumers are taken into account, are constructed and the social welfare maximization objective function, in which the environmental costs are considered, is established to implement the internalization of environmental cost of power generation. Meanwhile, the chaos optimized quantum genetic algorithm is led in to solve the proposed models, and generating capacity of power plant using conventional energy resources and power stations based on renewable energy sources as well as the combined collocation of related tax policy and subsidy policy are obtained while the social welfare maximization under electricity market equilibrium is achieved. Finally, the impacts of grid-connection of renewable energy sources on social welfare under both market condition and price ceiling are researched by case study to verify the feasibility and reasonability of the constructed models and the induced algorithm..