基于水质模拟的不确定条件下两阶段随机水资源规划模型

An inexact two-stage stochastic model for water resource management under uncertainty

针对流域内不同企业的水资源分配及企业生产污染排放导致的水环境问题,运用区间两阶段随机规划的方法,耦合区间两阶段模型(ITSP)和区间水质模型(IS-P),建立不确定两阶段随机水质-水量耦合规划模型(ITSP-SP).该模型以流域内系统利益最大为目标函数,模拟了流域内各个企业的水量分配及排污过程中河道水质变化,并在保证河流水质达标前提下优化预计分配水量,调整企业生产规模.通过模型运算得到区间解,为管理者提供了多样的决策方案.并且,该模型充分考虑不确定因素对系统利益的影响,能够有效的规避系统决策失误及方案缺失现象.

In order to solve the water allocation and water pollution problems during different industries production process in a river basin,an inexact twostage stochastic programming integrated with water quality simulation model was developed for water resources management and water quality improvement act planning under uncertainty.The model was coupled with an inexact two-stage stochastic programming （ITSP） and an inexact Streeter-Phelps model （IS-P）.The model optimized water resources quantity to each industrial plants with maximization of benefits of the system as an objective function by simulating water quality change trends under different inflow levels.Interactive algorithms were utilized for finding solutions to the ITSP-SP model.The solutions can provide multiple decision-making patterns for water resource managers.Meanwhile,this model has capability of analyzing the impacts of various uncertainty factors on benefits of the system,and avoiding the mistake of decision-making and the lack of decision-alternatives.