基于模糊推理的本质HSE评价方法研究

The research of inherent hse evaluation method based on fuzzy inference

本质安全的目的是消除危害源,选择本质安全较优的过程能够从根源上避免事故的发生,且减少复杂昂贵的安全保护系统。本质安全指标方法的开发能够应用于定量过程的本质安全水平,辅助在过程设计阶段进行决策。已有评价方法的不足主要有指标区间和权重的主观性,指标之间缺乏逻辑关联等。基于模糊逻辑提出了IPI(InherentPreferenceIndex)方法,在过程早期阶段评价安全、环境和健康影响。根据危害情形和指标的逻辑关系建立模糊推理模型,分析了反应危害、泄漏危害、环境和健康危害。同时,针对各级子指标设置权重系数使结果趋于合理。最后应用IPI法评价比较乙酸过程路径,根据评价结果对各路径进行定量等级划分。

Inherent safety aims to eliminate hazards in early stage. The option of inherently safer process can avoid accident to happen fi＇om the source as well as complicated and costly safety protection system. The development of many inherent safety indices have been used to quantify the level of inherent safety of chemical process, which can aid to make decision in design stage. The most disadvantages for inherent safety index methods will be subjective index intervals and unreasonable weighting, lack of logical relationship between indices. This work presents Inherent Preference Index（IPI）, based on fuzzy logic to assess safety, health and environmental impacts in preliminary design stage. The fuzzy inference model which involves logical relationship among the indices according to hazardous scenario is established to analyze the reaction hazard, leakage hazard, environment and health hazard. Moreover, the weight coefficient is added to each subindex to make the result more reasonable. The proposed IPI is applied to compare competing routes of acetic acid manufacture. Each route is ranked quantitatively according to the evaluating result finally.