基于省际面板数据的全要素电力效率评价与分解模型

Total-factor Electric Efficiency Measurement and Decomposition Based on Provincial Panel Data

主要研究中国区域全要素电力效率及其驱动因素,探讨全要素电力效率与区域经济增长之间的相关关系,从而为节能减排政策的制定提供参考。应用数据包络分析理论建立了区域全要素电力效率评价模型;基于Malmquist生产率指数建立了全要素电力效率分解模型,以探讨全要素电力效率变化的驱动因素;建立动态面板数据模型,探讨全要素电力效率与经济增长之间的相关关系。以1995—2008年中国30个省、市、自治区的数据为样本,测算了区域全要素电力效率,结果表明经济发展快的区域全要素电力效率比较高,基于一般矩估计的动态面板数据模型的估计结果进一步证实了中国区域全要素电力效率与人均国内生产总值呈正相关关系,但与产业结构呈负相关关系;全要素电力效率分解模型的结果表明,除湖南外,其他区域的技术水平在提高。研究结果具有较高的政策建议价值,即技术进步和产业结构调整是提高中国区域全要素电力效率的重要措施。

To provide references for making policy of conserving energy and reducing emissions,the paper mainly studied the regional total-factor electric efficiency in China and its driving factors,and discussed the relationship between total-factor electric efficiency and economic growth.This paper proposed an evaluation model to measure total factor electric efficiency by using data envelop analysis.Based on the Malmquis index,a decomposition model of the total factor electric efficiency was conducted to identify the driving forces for electric efficiency enhancement.This paper used the dynamic panel model,which was estimated by general method of moment,to investigate the relationship between total factor electric efficiency and regional economic growth.The sample data spans 14 years from 1995 to 2008.The empirical results indicate that the total factor electric efficiency of developed region is higher than that of developing region.Moreover,the estimated results of the dynamic panel model indicate that there is a significant positive correlation relationship exists between total-factor electric efficiency and regional gross domestic product per capita,while a negative correlation relationship exists between total-factor electric efficiency and industrial structure.The results of the total-factor electric efficiency decomposition model demonstrate that all provinces but Hunan has improved their technical level,which is the main driver to improve the total factor electric efficiency.Therefore technical progress and industrial restructuring are main contributors to improve the total factor electric efficiency in China.