能源价格变化对我国宏观经济及节能减排的影响研究——基于联立方程模型的分析

The Study of the Impact of Energy Price Changes on China Macroeconomy and Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction

基于供给需求理论构建了能源——经济联立方程模型,定量研究各类能源价格变化对我国宏观经济的影响.结果发现,能源价格上涨可以降低能源消耗,通过供给渠道对潜在生产能力和GDP产生紧缩作用,对通货膨胀产生向上压力.石油价格上涨对主要经济指标的影响略小,煤炭价格与电力价格上涨对经济的影响较大,煤、电价格联合上涨对经济的影响最大.这与目前我国能源消费结构吻合.各种能源价格的持续上涨冲击对潜在产出、能源消费、能源强度和碳排放强度的负向影响有继续增强的趋势.

Based on the supply and demand theory, this paper constructs an energy-economy simultaneous equation model to quantitatively study the impact of energy price changes on China macroeconomy. The results indicate that, the rising of energy prices can reduce energy consumption, bring tightening effect to production capacity and GDP through the supply, generate upward pressure on inflation. The rising of oil price impacts the major economic indicators smaller, while the rising of coal price and electricity price impacts the economy much, and the coal-electricity price linkage impacts the economy most. The results match the energy consumption structure in China. The continuous energy-price-rising shocks tend to strengthen the negative effect on potential output, energy consumption, energy intensity and Carbon emission intensity.