日本国债:安全资产还是风险潜在?

Japanese National Debt: Is It a Safe Asset or Potential Risk?

金融危机后全球安全资产减少,使日本国债地位相对改善,成为世界金融市场的避险工具之一。但由于日本长期政府债务净额占GDP之比居高不下,国债信用已经受到损毁,主权信用评级被下调。从日本国内资金循环特征看,日本企业转变为储蓄大户的原因不是企业的盈利增加,而是由于资产负债表的调整压力使投资意愿降低,因此,日本政府只有不断增发国债来弥补筹资主体的缺位;日本国债期限结构的短期化和日益增长的利息负担使其面临的市场利率风险加大;同时,日本中央银行购买国债规模膨胀,不断冲击财政纪律的约束,财政赤字货币化风险隐藏其中。长期来看,日本泡沫经济崩溃后,资产去泡沫化的过程也正是国债泡沫化的过程。在日本财政改革前景未见定论,企业的投资需求尚未恢复的前提下,日本国债的可持续性存在巨大风险。

Global safe assets decrease after financial crisis,which relatively improves Japanese debt position and which becomes one of risk prevention tools in global financial market,because the ratio of Japanese long-term government bonds net amount to GDP is high,however,the national debt credit is damaged,and Japanese sovereign credit rating is down-graded.Based on the feature of Japanese domestic capital circulation,the reason for a Japanese enterprise to become a big depositor is not the increase of enterprise＇s earnings but is compelled by the pressure of adjusting balance sheet to make investment willing decrease,thus,Japanese Government has to continuously increase national bonds issuance to make up fundraising subject default.The short-term Japanese debt maturity structure and increasing interest burden make its market interest rate risk bigger,meanwhile,the scale of Japanese Central Bank bonds purchase is swelling,which constantly challenges the limitation of financial regulation,as a result,financial deficit monetization risk is hidden in it.From long-run perspective,after Japanese bubble economy burst out,the bubble removal process of Japanese assets is the bubbling process of Japanese debt,thus,the sustainability of Japanese bonds has huge risk under the premise of the uncertainty of Japanese financial reform prospect and the non-recovery of Japanese enterprise investment demand.