沁水煤层气井产能预测及其影响因素研究

The Productivity Evaluation and Influential Factors of Qinshui Coalbed Methane(CBM)Wells

目前煤层气井产能预测的方法中不同程度存在适用范围较窄,所需地质、岩石流体数据量大等问题。根据沁水煤层气田某区块实际生产资料,基于多元逐步回归方法,建立了煤层气井产能预测模型,并通过通径分析定量研究套压、动液面深度和井底压力等排采参数对煤层气产能的直接及间接影响规律。研究结果表明,使用上述方法建立的产能预测模型预测结果接近实际,适用范围较广,并可较准确地分析不同排采阶段各因素对产气量的影响规律及影响程度,在现场实际应用中取得了较好的效果。

There existed problems of narrow scope and the needs of large numbers of geologic and rock fluid data in its production forecasting methods at present,which caused more difficulty for production forecast.Based on actual production data,coalbed methane well productivity prediction models were built through the multiple regression analysis method.The direct and indirect influences of dynamic parameters on production capacity,such as set pressure,working fluid level,bottom hole flowing pressure were quantitatively studied by using the method drift analysis.The result shows that which provides a new way of forecasting production of CBM well.The results show that the result of multiple regression analysis model approaches to the actual production and has a wide range of application and high precision,and it can be used to analyze factors affecting rules and level of gas production at different stages.Good result is obtained in practical application.