磁暴和亚暴的理论预报模式

Theoretical Prediction Model of Magnetic Storms and Substorms

在理论研究和数据分析研究上,建立了磁暴和磁层亚暴的等效电路模式,用于预报亚暴和磁暴的指数。其输入条件为1AU处地球磁层位置的太阳风参量,模拟计算不同行星际条件下磁层和电离层系统的电流分布演化,亚暴和磁暴的AE和Dst指数变化。能够达到提前约50—80min预报亚暴,提前约2—3h预报磁暴,预报结果的准确性和精确性都较好。

Magnetic storms and substorms are important processes in the evolution of the geomagnetosphere. It is an urgent task to accurately predict the occurrence and strength of the magnetic storms and substorms in space physics and space weather. Based on the theoretical analysis on the physical mechanism of magnetospheric dynamics, we have established an equivalent circuit method to predict stoms and substorms. With the observed solar wind parameters at the L1 point as the input conditions, this physical model can well predict the evolution of the substorms and storms with leading times of about 50-80 mins and 2-3 hrs respectively. This physical prediction model can satisfy the need to ensure the safety and protection of space activities to certain extent.