中国省级财政集中程度的影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Financial Concentration across Provinces in China

中国省级以下政府间财政关系缺乏规范性,其中,财政集中度的优化问题是中国财政体制改革亟待解决的问题之一。本文基于1997年至2009年间的面板数据,重点考察省级以下政府财政集中的决定因素。研究表明:考察变量对财政集中度变化有较好的预测效果;经济发展水平与财政集中度存在倒U型关系;城市化水平与财政集中正相关;少数民族人数比例、人口数量、经济开放度以及地级市数量与财政集中度负相关;西部地区的财政集中度要高于东部地区。

The financial relationship of China＇ s provincial government lack of standardization, among them, the optimization of financial concentration is one of problems to be solved in China＇ s financial system reform. This paper, based on the panel data of 1997 to 2009, focuses on the factors which decide the financial concentration of provincial level. Research shows that： the variables included in the regression are helpful in the prediction of changes in the level of concentration; Income level and financial concentration existing an inverted U type relationship ; There is a positive causal relationship between the level of urbanization and fiscal concentration; Minority proportion, population size, economic openness and the number of prefecture - level city pose a negative effect on fiscal concentration; Financial concentration of the western region is higher than the eastern region.