我国流通服务业与制造业互动的产业关联分析与动态比较

Industrial Linkage and Dynamic Comparison between China's Circulation Service Industry and Manufacture Industry

文章利用五年的投入产出数据,通过构建相关指标,从行业整体和细分产业两个层面分析了我国流通服务业与制造业产业关联的互动特征并进行了动态比较。研究结果表明,我国流通服务业对制造业的后向拉动作用强于其对制造业的支撑作用,且两者都有增强趋势。物流运输业对资源加工业和资本品制造业表现出较强的后向需求拉动作用,而前向作用不明显;批发零售贸易业则表现出对消费品制造业较强的前向支撑作用,对制造业各行业的后向需求拉动作用不明显,且有走弱趋势。同时,制造业各子行业对制造业其他部门的波及和拉动作用大于对物流运输业和批发零售业的波及拉动作用,消费品制造业主要受到来自批发零售业的影响,而资源加工业和资本品制造业中的绝大多数行业则对物流运输业的反应更为敏感。

With five years of input and output data, by constructing the relevant indicators, this paper analyzes and compares the industrial linkage features between circulation service industry and manufacture industry on the whole industry level and subindustry levels. The results indicate that China＇s circulation service industry exerts stronger backward pull effect on the manufacture industry than forward support effect, and both effects are enhancing increasingly. Logistics transportation exerts significant backward demand-pull effect on the resource processing industry and capital goods manufacturing, while the forward effect is weak. Wholesale and retail trades show strong forward support effect on consumer goods manufacturing, but with weak demand-pull effect upon subdivision manufacturing, and the trend goes weak. At the same time, each subsidiary manufacturing industry has stronger pull effect on other manufacturing sectors than logistics transportation and wholesale retail trade. Consumer goods are mainly affected by wholesale and retail trade, while the majority of resources processing and the capital goods manufacturing are more sensitive to logistics transportation.