人口红利与我国东部地区产业升级研究

Demographic Dividend and the Industrial Upgrading of the Eastern Region

中国从二元经济向一元经济转化的过程中,大量的农村劳动力向沿海工业部门流动,从而促成了中国人口红利在沿海地区的集中释放。本文从理论上和经验上考察了人口红利对我国东部产业升级的影响,弥补了以往只关注人口红利与经济增长关系的不足。本文研究发现:二元经济转化中形成的人口红利有利于东部地区的资本积累,客观上促进了东部地区资本在要素禀赋中的比重,促进了东部地区产业升级。但是大量的劳动力迁入也延缓了东部地区刘易斯拐点的到来,延缓了市场促进产业升级的动力。

In the process of China＇s dualistic economic transformation,a large number of rural labor flow to the coastal industrial sector,which contributed to China＇s population concentrated in coastal areas and released of the demographic dividend. This paper examines the theory and experience of the demographic dividend on the impact of China＇s industrial upgrading, make up only care about the relationship between demographic dividend and economic growth in the past. This study found that： the for- mation of the demographic dividend is conducive to capital accumulation,the objective to promote the capital share of the eastern region in factor endowments ,and promote industrial upgrading in the eastern region. But a lot of labor to move into the east- ern region also delayed the arrival of Lewis turning point,delaying the market power to promote industrial upgrading.