我国建设占用耕地数量与城镇化水平的相互关系--基于VAR模型的实证

Empirical Study on the Relationships between Cultivated Land Occupation by Construction and the level of Urbanization in China:An Empirical Study based on VAR Model

本文采用现代计量经济学方法研究1986至2010年我国建设占用耕地数量与我国城镇化水平之间的双向作用机制。研究结果表明:从长期来看,我国建设占用耕地数量序列与城镇化水平序列具有协整关系,即两者之间存在长期均衡关系;从短期来看,尽管二者受随机干扰的影响可能会偏离长期均衡关系,但偏离是暂时的,建设占用耕地数量的短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度大于城镇化水平;建设占用耕地数量与城镇化水平之间相互作用的效果存在明显差异。城镇化水平的冲击对建设占用耕地数量的影响强烈,建设占用耕地数量的变化对城镇化水平的影响微弱。因此,为了协调与缓解城镇化发展与耕地保护之间的矛盾,我国在加强耕地保护的同时,应提高城镇用地的集约利用水平,维护土地市场的正常供需秩序,做到耕地保护与城镇化发展并行不悖。

This paper uses modern econometric methods to analysis two-way mechanism between the cultivated land occupation by construction and the level of urbanization in China from 1986 to 2010. The results show that：in the long run, there are co-integra- tion relationships between cultivated land occupation by construction and the level of urbanization ;in the short term, even though both may deviate from the long-run equilibrium relationship,but the deviation is temporary, the adjustment of the cultivated land occupation by construction from short-term fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium is greater than the level of urbanization;the impact of the level of urbanization on the amount of cultivated land occupation by construction is remarkable ,while the changes of cultivated land occupation by construction may have weak impact on the level of urbanization. Therefore, in order to coordinate and to ease the conflict between urban development and farmland protection, we shall strengthen the protection of cultivated land in China while raise the level of intensive use of urban land, maintain the normal land market supply and demand.