基于VEC模型的陕西省人口结构变化与经济增长关系研究

Research of Relations between Population Structure Changes and Economic Growth in Shaanxi Province Based on VEC Model

人口结构对国家或地区经济发展具有重要作用,二者相互影响、相互制约。本文选择劳动人口所占比重、城镇人口所占比重、男女性别比例、文盲及半文盲比重与人均GDP作为研究指标,基于陕西省1989-2008年相关数据,对陕西省人口结构与经济增长关系进行了协整检验和VEC模型分析。研究结果表明:劳动力人口比重与经济增长呈现正相关,文盲及半文盲人口比重与经济增长呈现负相关;城镇人口比重和男女比例对经济发展具有重要促进作用;除开劳动人口所占比重外,其余三个指标对经济增长影响存在不同的滞后期。最后,根据分析结果提出陕西省经济发展对策建议。

Population structure has main effect on the economy development in one country or region ,the two influence each other. The labor people proportion of the total population, Urban population proportion, a sex ratio, semiliterate proportion and per capita GDP were selected as research indicators,and the relations between population structure changes and economic growth in Shaanxi Province was tested and analyzed via Co-integration test and VEC model,based on relevant data from 1989 to 2008 in Shaanxi province. The study results showed that：The labor population ratio to the total population and economic growth presents positive relevant,the illiterate and semi-illiterate population proportion and economic growth presents negative relevant;urban population proportion and the ratio of men to women play an important role in promoting economic develop- ment. The other three indexes have lag phase on influencing the economic growth except labor population proportion. Finally, Countermeasures for Shaanxi Province Economic Development were put forward according to the analysis results.