应急物流预案综合效果预测研究

Study on Comprehensive Effect Prediction of Emergency Logistics Preplans

通过分析应急物流预案综合效果的影响因素,建立了应急物流预案的预测指标体系,应用模糊层次分析法确定各指标权重,采用模糊综合分析法对应急物流预案的综合效果进行预测。最后,通过实例研究证明,该方法能够快速有效地预测应急物流预案的优劣,并且操作简便易行,提高了预测的科学性、合理性和准确性。

In this paper, through analyzing the influence factors of 1he comprehensive effect of emergency logistics preplans, we established the prediction index system of the preplans, applied fuzzy AHP to determine the weight of the index and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to predict the comprehensive effect of the preplans. At the end, through an empirical example, we proved that the method, easy to operate, could quickly predict the quality of an emergency logistics preplan.