基于影响图的电力行业供应链风险评价

Evaluation of Risks of Power Industry Supply Chain Based on Influence Diagram

通过对电力行业供应链的分析,构建了电力行业供应链风险评价指标体系。在此基础上提出了基于影响图的电力行业供应链风险评价方法。该方法能够融合来自数据的定量信息和来自领域专家经验和知识的定性判断建立风险模型,并通过模型推理进行风险的预测和分析。最后通过一个电力行业供应链风险评价的实例,验证了该方法的有效性。

In this paper, through analyzing the supply chain of the power industry, we established its risk evaluation index system, on the basis of which we proposed the risk evaluation method based on influence diagram. This method could integrate quantitative information and qualitative judgment based on expert experience and knowledge to establish the risk model and carry out risk forecasting and analysis through model inference. At the end an empirical example was used to verify the validity of the method.