黄河宁蒙河段冰凌变化新特点分析

Analysis on Some New Ice Characteristics in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River

基于冰凌观测资料,分析了黄河宁蒙河段2000年以来冰凌的变化特点。结果表明:河段流凌及封、开河特征发生明显改变;河道冰下过流能力明显下降,槽蓄水增量逐年增大;封、开河水位升高,河道堤防压力增大,凌情形势趋于复杂。建议在加强冰凌原型观测的基础上,开发具有物理机制的冰凌预报模型。

Based on the observed data,the characters of ice regime in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River since 2000 were analyzed.The results show that：the date of river ice run,freeze-up and break-up have been obviously changed;the under-ice flow capacity of channel reduces distinctly,inversely the channel-storage increment gradually is increased;water levels are constantly elevated during freeze-up and break-up periods,dike protection is facing great pressure;ice prevention situation is becoming serious.It is suggested that ice model with physical mechanism should be built to improve the river ice forecasting level on the basis of strengthening river ice prototype observation.