新疆阿克苏河近50a径流变化特征分析

Analysis on Runoff Variation Characteristics of Aksu River in the Past 50 Years

以阿克苏河流域的沙里桂兰克和协合拉水文站1957—2005年实测年径流资料为基础,运用变差系数、累计距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、小波分析等方法对阿克苏河流域近50a来的径流变化进行了多角度分析。结果表明:①径流量的年际变化平缓,年径流量的变差系数和极值比都相对较小;②径流量的多年变化特征明显,表现出显著的丰枯变化,1957—1993年为枯水期,1994—2005年为丰水期;③Mann-Kendall突变检验表明,在过去的近50a中,阿克苏河的年径流量在1966年存在一次突变,从1996年开始,阿克苏河的年径流量显著增加;④小波分析表明,阿克苏河年径流量存在较为明显的周期特征,其显著周期为18a、14a和4a。

According to the annual runoff time series at the Shaliguilanke and Xiehela stations of the Aksu River from 1957 to 2005, the runoff variation characteristics in recent 50 years were analyzed by variation coefficient, accumulated deviation from average, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The results show that ： 1 ） the interannual variations of runoff are gently, the variation coefficient and extreme ration of annual runoff are relatively small; 2） the interannual variation characteristics of runoff are significant in abrupt change at different time scales, from 1957 to 1993 is dry period while 1994 to 2005 is wet period ; 3 ） there is an abrupt change of the annual runoff occurred in 1966 in Aksu River within the past 50 years, the annual runoff increases notably from 1996; 4） The annual runoff has signifieant periodicity and its notable periods are 18 a, 14 a and 4 a respectively.