预测位置空间离散化的多航路中期冲突探测算法

Multi-route mid-term conflict detection algorithm based on discretization of predicted position space

为了解决高飞行密度空域中具有多段航路的飞机中期冲突探测算法的精度较低和效率不高的问题,本文提出了一种新的中期冲突探测算法。将两飞机的航路重新划分为一系列航路片段,使得在每一个航路片段中没有航向和速度的变化。基于Prandini瞬时冲突概率的思想,计算所有航路片段的最大瞬时冲突概率,并取冲突概率中的最大者作为两架飞机整个航路冲突发生可能性的一个极端情况的度量。其中提出了基于预测位置空间离散化的新算法来求航路片段的瞬时冲突概率,对两飞机预测位置空间进行离散,然后根据位置预测误差概率密度函数以及两飞机的相遇几何来求瞬时冲突概率。仿真结果表明,相对于Prandini随机化算法,本文的冲突探测算法计算效率和计算精度更高,能够满足高密度飞行下条件下具有多段航路飞机的实时冲突探测的要求。

To resolve the low accuracy and low efficiency problems of mid-term conflict detection algorithms under the situation of aircrafts with multi-route in high flight density airspace, a novel algorithm is proposed. In this paper, the aircrafts＇ routes are divided into a sequence of route segments with no heading and speed changes. Based on Prandini＇ s instantaneous conflict probability theory, the maximum value of all the route segments＇ maximum instantaneous conflict probability is a criticality measure of the two aircrafts＇ conflict probability in their entire routes. A novel algorithm based on the discretization of predicted position space is proposed to calculate instantaneous conflict probability of route segments. Discretizing two aircrafts＇ predicted position space into a certain number of small rectangles of the same size, calculating the centroid of every rectangle and the probability that aircraft＇ s position is within the rectangle according to the position predic- tion probability density function, the instantaneous conflict probability is calculated by cumulating the probability that an air- craft＇ s rectangle is in conflict with another aircraft＇ s rectangle. The simulation results show that the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm proposed in this paper are much better than Prandini＇ s randomized algorithm and the results of the algo- rithm in the paper is much more stable. It is able to meet the requirement of real-time conflict detection for aircrafts with multi-route in high flight density airspace.