河南省全要素生产率及其分解——基于1983～2010年市级面板数据的Malmquist指数分析

Henan Province's Total Factor Productivity and its Decomposition(1983～2010)

使用DEA中的Malmquist指数法在市级面板数据基础上得出了河南省TFP的变动值。在1984～2010年TFP对经济增长的贡献率达到32.7%。在1983～1995年和2001～2005年TFP有2.9%的年增长速度,而在1996～2000年和2006～2010年这一数据分别为-10%和-5.8%。TFP下降的原因是农业改革带来的技术进步在1995年后开始减少,以及2000年以后进出口带来的移植型技术进步支持不了长期经济增长。TFP增长的主要动力是技术进步。就地区而言,改革开放以来郑州的年均技术进步达到5.4%,远超河南省其他地区。郑州和洛阳的技术进步对河南省TFP影响最大。

Based on the panel data of the municipal,this paper obtained the change of the TFP in the Henan province,using the Malmquist index of the DEA method.In the 1984-2010 period,the contribution of TFP to the economic growth reached to 32.7%.In the 1983 ~ 1995 and 2001 ~ 2005 period,the TFP＇s annual growth rate is 2.9%,and in the 1996 ~ 2000 is-10%,in the 2006 ~ 2010 years 5.8%.The reasons of the decrease are the technological progress of the agricultural reform started to decrease in 1995,as well as transplant technology advances that was brought by the import and export can not support the long-term economic growth after 2000.TFP＇s growth is mainly driven by technological advances.Since the reform and opening up,the technological advances in Zhengzhou reach to 5.4%,far more than other regions.Technological advances in Zhengzhou and Luoyang is the biggest factor of the Henan Province＇s TFP.