妈祖文化旅游经济发展的GM(1,1)模型预测——以福建莆田市为例

Prediction of Mazu Culture Tourism Economic Development Using the GM (1,1) Model:Taking Putian as an Example

GM(1,1)模型对于预测事物的发展具有较好的实践性.选取2004—2011年之间的旅游接待人数、旅游收入以及人均旅游消费为三大考量指标,在论证GM(1,1)模型对预测妈祖文化旅游经济发展情况适用性的基础上,预测今后4年2012—2015年妈祖文化旅游经济的发展情况,在此基础上从战略、产品、市场以及产业四大层面提出相应的发展建议.

The GM（1,1） model is proved to be practical when predicting the economic development.Based on GM（1,1） model,combined with three data sets-tourism reception,tourism income and travel consumption per capita from 2004 to 2011,the paper prove the suitability and predict the economic development of Mazu cultural tourism from 2012 to 2015.This paper offers corresponding advices on strategy,product,market and industry.