桓仁流域汛期旬径流预报方法研究

Research on 10-day Runoff Forecasting Method for Huanren Basin in Flood Season

以桓仁流域为例,分析了我国北方流域汛期各旬不同的来水特点,对以往采用不变预报因子的旬径流预报方法进行了改进。汛期各旬挑选变预报因子,结合多元线性回归方法构建旬径流预报模型。计算结果表明,基于变预报因子的旬径流预报模型,更能反映流域旬径流变化规律,且比不变预报因子的预报精度高,预报效果更理想。

The previous methods of forecasting 10-day runoff select the definite predictors to forecast. This paper improved the previous methods, and proposed the approach of selecting various predictors for each 10-day in flood season to forecast 10-day runoff based on the characteristics of inflow in each 10-day of flood season in the northern basin of China. The proposed method was applied for 10-day runoff forecasting in the Huanren Basin. Different predictors for each 10-day in flood season were selected, combined with the multiple linear regression, the 10-day runoff forecasting model was constructed. The calculation results showed that predictors can better reflect the basin＇s 10-day runoff variety, the 10-day runoff forecasting model based on various acquire better forecasting precision and effects.