住房泡沫与城市人口增长

Housing Bubbles and Urban Population Growth

住房泡沫给家庭经济活动、产业结构调整和经济增长方式转变带来了巨大挑战,改变着家庭人口规模和城市人口流动规模。本文在索罗增长模型基础上构筑了住房泡沫与城市人口增长的理论框架。通过分析住房泡沫变化对家庭生育和迁移决策的动态影响机制发现:住房泡沫对人口增长的直接影响取决于经济增长方式;住房泡沫从抚养成本和家庭收入两个方面改变家庭净抚养人口数,进而间接影响人口增长率;住房泡沫通过驱动资本增长率,调整产业间劳动力配置,间接使人口增长率随资本增长率的增加而减少。

Housing bubbles lead to great challenges on family economic activities, the adjustment of industrial ture and the change of economic growth mode, and change family population size and urban population mobility. This constructs a theoretical framework of housing bubbles and the growth of urban population size on the basis of Solow＇s struc-paper growth model. By analyzing the dynamic effects of changes in housing bubbles on household＇s fertility and migration decision, we illustrate that direct effects of housing bubbles on population growth depend on the mode of economic growth ; from the aspects of the cost of childrearing and family income, house bubbles alter the net population size of childrearing, thereby indirectly affecting the growth rate of population ; housing bubbles drive the growth rate of capital, change the allocation of labor among industries, and indirectly reduce the growth rate of population accompanied by the increase in the growth rate of capital.