乘用车市场库存深度的研究

Research on Inventory Depth in Passenger Vehicle Market

根据2005～2011年的狭义乘用车市场库存数据,以当期批发量和批发量的环比两个因素作为自变量,以当期库存占批发量的占比为因变量,运用回归分析建模,并推断出1998～2004年的乘用车库存数,最后估算出2011年年底乘用车市场的库存总量。针对乘用车市场现有库存深度的计算公式没有考虑季节性因素的偏差,采用滚动月均销量法修正偏差,计算表明最佳滚动月与当年销量增长率和库存增长率有关。

Using the in-store data of narrowed meaning of passenger vehicle market during 2005 to 2011, firstly, taking current wholesale and link relative wholesale as independent variable, taking ratio of current inventory among wholesale as dependent variable ; then, the inventory of passenger vehicle during 1998 to 2004 is deduced by means of regression analysis. On the basis of the above calculation, the total market inventory of passenger vehicle in the end of 2011 is estimated. Given that the deviation of seasonal factors hasn＇t been taken into consideration in the computational formula of current inventory depth in the passenger vehicle market, the deviation is revised by using method of scroll average monthly sales. The results indicate that optimum scroll month is associated with the an- nual sales growth and inventory growth.