财政分权、制度性冲击与房价演进动态

Fiscal Decentralization,Institutional Shocks and House-price Dynamics

本文认为财政分权水平的提高是促进中国房价上涨的重要制度性因素。首先,我们基于省际面板数据模型获得了这一观点的经验证据,在控制了其他一些因素后,结果显示财政分权度提高能够显著的推高房价。同时,我们还构建了一个包含财政分权和居民房产偏好的动态一般均衡模型,从理论上分析了财政分权作为一种制度性冲击是如何影响房价动态路径的,基于动态结构模型的反事实模拟显示,分权性制度冲击的强度和持久性是房价演进动态的重要决定因素。

This paper asserts that the increasing the fiscal decentralization is an important institutional factor for the in- creasing house prices. First, we have acquired this stylized fact based on provincial panel data, controlling other factors, we find that fiscal decentralization has significant impact on house pricing. To make the conclusion more logically-consistent, we have constructed a dynamic general equilibrium model including fiscal decentralization and house prices, and we have theoretically specified the importance of fiscal decentralization to the surging house prices in china. The counterfactual simulation shows that the strength and persistence of the fiscal decentralization are important determinants of house price dynamics.