人口老龄化与中国劳动力供给变迁

Population Ageing and Actual Labor Supply Changes in China:A New Approach of Four-dimensional Perspective

文章在充分考虑中国发展特征和人口老龄化特殊性的基础上,从劳动者受教育水平、劳动熟练程度、劳动强度及经济活动人口比重变化4个方面分析了老龄化对劳动力供给的综合影响。结果表明,尽管从长期看,随着老龄化程度的加深,劳动力供给下降趋势不可逆转,但劳动力质量的提升会弱化或延缓这一趋势,预计2027年中国真实劳动力供给才会出现明显的"拐点",滞后于以劳动力数量衡量的名义劳动力供给下降起始期12年。

In consideration of the natures of China's economic development and population ageing,this paper studies the labor force changes affected by population ageing from four-dimensional perspective of labor education capital,skill level,work intensity and ratio of active labor force.The study points out that although the downtrend of labor-force caused by population ageing cannot be avoided,the promotion effect of population ageing on labor quality may delay the tendency significantly.According to the estimation of this study,China's actual labor supply will face an inflection point of decreasing at the year of 2027,which is 12 years later than the time given by most measurements based on pure quantity of labor force supply.