基于一种改进灰色关联分析模型的区域货运结构优化

Optimization of Regional Freight Structure Based on an Improved Analytical Model of Grey Correlation

为实现货运结构总体区域优化,运用灰色系统理论中的改进相对关联分析法,以珠三角地区货运结构为研究对象进行了实证研究,建立了各种货运方式的货物周转量与相关影响因素之间的改进相对关联度矩阵,对货运结构系统特征及其相关影响因素作了优势分析。研究结果表明:在珠三角地区,人均GDP序列与货运结构序列的改进相对关联度最大,其次是第一、第三产业产值序列,第二产业产值序列与之的改进相对关联度最小;货运结构不合理,公路和民航货运结构序列分别与相关影响因素序列相对于始点的变化速率接近程度最大,而水路、铁路货运结构序列分别与其变化速率接近程度很小,其技术经济优势没有得到充分发挥。为减轻公路货运压力,应充分利用珠江和沿海水运资源,同时加快铁路建设,政府的货运政策应向扶持水路和铁路货运倾斜。

In order to achieve collectivity freight structure optimization in one area, by using an improved analytical method of relative correlation in the grey system theory, the freight structure in the Pearl River Delta Area was researched by demonstration, the matrix of improved relative grey correlation degree between freight turnover of all kinds of freight modes and correlation influence factors was established, the system characteristic and its influence factors on freightage structure were analyzed. The research results show that in the Pearl River Delta Area, （1） the improved relative correlation degree between sequences of GDP per capita and sequence of freight structure is maximal, the following are those between production values of the first/third industry and sequence of freight structure, and the last one is that between the production value of second industry and sequence of freight structure; （2） the freight structure is irrational, the sequences of roadway/civil aviation freight structure are both closest to the changing velocities of the sequence of correlation influencing factors relative to original time sequences respectively, while the sequences of waterway/railway are not both closest to the changing velocities respectively, their technology-economy advantages were not fully brought into play. To abate roadway freight stress, the Pearl River freight and sea- transportation should be fully utilize, railway construction should be quickened, waterway and railway freight should be supported by governmental freight policy.