基于脆弱性分析的成熟期煤炭城市可持续发展路径优化研究

Optimization research based on vulnerability analysis on sustainable development path of coal city in mature stage

基于脆弱性视角,采用层次分析方法,以安徽省淮南市为研究对象,从城市自然、社会、经济系统选取20个指标建立了城市脆弱性评价体系。以2001-2010年的数据,定量与定性相结合地研究了淮南市各系统脆弱性评价值的演变特征及影响因素。结果显示:淮南市的城市脆弱性与近年来经济的稳定增长显现正相关性;环境污染加重、过度依赖煤炭采掘制造业、产业及就业结构单一、居民技能水平偏低为成熟期煤炭城市发展中面临的主要问题。最后结合淮南市所处的发展阶段和现实状况,提出了可持续发展路径的优化方案。

Based on the perspective of vulnerability, adopting the Analytic Hierarchy Process, taking Huainan as the research object, the paper selects 20 indexes from nature, society and economy systems to have established the urban vulnerability evaluation system. With 10 years between 2001--2010 as the time section, combining the quantitative and qualitative meth- ods, the evolution characters and influencing factors of vulnerability evaluation value of each sys tem of Huainan are researched. The result shows： there is positive correlation between the city vulnerability of Huainan and the steady economy development in recent years~ more serious envi- ronmental pollution, excessively depending on mining and manufacturing industry, single indus- trial structure and employment structure, lower skill level of people are the main problems in de- velopment of the coal city in mature stage. Finally, according to the development stage and the actual situation of Huainan, the paper proposes the optimization scheme of sustainable develop- ment path of it.