帽儿山地区10种灌木生长期内含水率变化及预测模型

Dynamics and modeling of water content of ten shrub species in their growth period in Maoershan Mountain region of Northeast China

通过2010—2011年两年的连续观测,研究了帽儿山地区10种典型灌木生长期内含水率的动态变化及其影响因子,并建立了灌木含水率预测模型.结果表明:10种灌木生长期内的最低含水率都高于100%.在展叶期后到落叶期之前,大部分灌木含水率都超过200%.其中,瘤枝卫矛、珍珠梅和接骨木在整个生长期内不易燃;暴马丁香、东北山梅花、乌苏里绣线菊、金银忍冬、长白忍冬、栓翅卫矛和小叶鼠李在萌芽期和落叶期内可燃,在展叶期到落叶前期不易燃.土壤含水率和日最高气温对多数(7种)灌木的含水率有影响,林冠干旱指数则对部分(5种)灌木含水率有影响.所建立的线性预测模型中,9个模型可以解释超过35%的含水率变差.模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均相对误差(MRE)分别为35.9%和13.4%.

Based on the two successive years observation of the water content of ten representative shrub species in Maoershan Mountain region of Northeast China, this paper studied the dynamics of the water content of these shrub species during their growth period and related affecting factors, with the prediction models of the shrub water content established. For the ten shrub species, their minimal water content during growth period was higher than 100%, and most of the species had a water content higher than 200% within the period from the late phase of leaf-unfolding to early phase of leaf-falling. Euonymus verrucosus, Sorbaria sorbifolia, and Sambucus wiUiamsii were incombustible in their whole growth period due to the extremely high water content, while Syringa reticulate, Philadelphus schrenkii, Euonymus verrucosus, Spiraea chamaedryfolia, Lonicera maackii, Lonicera ruprechtiana, and Rhamnus parvifolia were combustible only in the phases of budding and leaf-falling. Soil moisture content and daily maximum temperature had effects on the water content of most （7） of the ten shrubs, and canopy drought severity index affected the water content of 5 of the ten shrubs. The established 9 prediction models could explain more than 35 % of the water content variance of the shrub species, with a mean MRE of 35.9% and a mean MRE of 13.4%.