基于引力模型的中国-中东欧贸易实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Trade between China and Middle East European based on Gravity Model

通过系统分析中国与中东欧贸易的现状以及影响贸易的主要因素,构建了3个引力模型,运用面板数据验证了经济规模对中国与中东欧贸易具有显著促进作用,人口规模对中国与中东欧贸易促进作用不显著;而地理距离不利于中国与中东欧贸易的扩大,欧盟东扩则有利于中国与中东欧贸易的扩大。研究还表明,中国与中东欧贸易偏离了林德的"需求相似论"。最后,基于引力模型估计了中国与中东欧贸易的潜力和合作重点,即:一要进口更多中东欧产品;二要拓展合作领域。

Through systematic analysis of current situations and main influencing factors of trade between China and Middle East European,this paper uses panel data and builts three gravity models to prove that economic scale has a significant promotion effect on China and Middle East Europe trade,while promotion effect of scale of population is not significant;geographical distance is not conducive to trade expansion between China and Middle East Europe,and the eastward expansion of the European Union is in favor of trade expansion between China and Middle East Europe.Studies also show that trade between China and Middle East Europe is off Linder ＂demand theory of similarity＂.Finally,based on the gravity model this paper makes estimation of trade potential and cooperation between China and Middle East Europe which is importing more products from Middle Eastern Europe and expanding the scope of cooperation.