商贸流通业与天津经济增长的实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Relationship Between Business Circulation Industry and Economic Development in Tianjin

商贸流通业作为第三产业的重要组成部分,在促进天津经济发展中起着举足轻重的作用。为直观描述天津商贸流通业在改革开放前后发生的变化及其与经济增长之间的关系,本文对1949—2009年天津GDP和商贸流通业增加值数据以1978年为界分为改革前(1949—1978年)和改革后(1979—2009年)两个阶段,用回归分析和误差修正模型两种方法对其进行定量分析。结果表明,商贸流通业对经济增长的影响力在改革开放后逐渐增强,商贸流通业的弹性系数大幅提升,将成为天津经济转变经济发展方式的引擎和通道。最后,根据实证分析结果,提出大力发展天津商贸流通业的政策性建议。

As an essential part of the tertiary industry, business circulation industry has been playing an important role in promoting the development of economy in Tianjin. To describe the changes of business circulation industry before and af ter the reform and opening-up, and the relationship between business circulation industry and economic development in Tianjin, the article uses Regression Model and Error Correction Model to make a quantitative analysis of value added of business circulation industry and GDP of Tianjin between 1949 and 2009, which is divided into two periods： from 1949 to 1978 and from 1979 to 2009, with the year of 1978 as the boundary. The results show that the impacts of business cir culation industry on economic development have been increasing, and elasticity coefficient of business circulation industry has improved greatly, which implies that business circulation industry will become the engine of the transformation of eco nomic development mode in Tianjin. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions of developing business circulation industry in Tianjin on the basis of the empirical study.