环境污染、能源消费与经济增长

Pollutant Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Development in China

在控制了资本和劳动力变量的基础上,构建了多变量VAR模型,考察了1989-2009中国及分区域在环境污染、能源消费和经济增长之间的动态因果关系。结果表明:对全国来说,分别存在从环境污染到经济增长、从环境污染到能源消费以及从能源消费到经济增长的三个单向因果关系。分区域看,东部沿海地区存在从经济增长到能源消费和从环境污染到能源消费的单向因果关系,环境污染和人均实际GDP之间不存在因果关系;中部地区存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,环境污染和经济增长之间以及环境污染和能源消费之间存在双向因果关系;西部地区显示能源消费与经济增长之间不存在因果关系,但存在环境污染和能源消费的双向因果关系和从经济增长到环境污染的单向因果关系。此外,实证结果表明能源消费与经济增长关系的假说-中性假说、增长性假说和保护性假说在东部、中部和西部地区依次成立,即支持了本文所构建的基于EKC的环境污染、能源消费与经济增长分析框架。

This study investigates the relationships among pollutant emissions, energy consump- tion and economic development in China during the period 1982 - 2009 by using one - step GMM - system model under multivariable panel VAR framework, controlling for capital stock and labor force. Regarding the data for all 28 provinces as a whole, we find that there is a unidirectional positive relationship running from pollutant emission to economic development and a unidirectional negative relationship between pollutant emission and energy consumption. Based on traditional economic planning, the panel data of 28 provinces are divided into two cross-province groups. It is discovered that in the Eastern region, there is only a unidirectional causal relationships lead- ing from economic development to pollutant emission and running from pollutant emission to ener- gy consumption., while in the Central region, there exist the unidirectional Granger causal rela- tionships between pollutant emission and energy consumption, as well as between pollutant e- mission and economic development; there exist the unidirectional causal relationships between pollutant emission and energy consumption, but no relationships between economic development and energy consumption in Western region. In addition, the neutrality, growth and conservation hypothesis in the relationship between economic development and energy consumption is suppor- ted by the empirical studies in Eastern, Central and Western region of China.