现代生产性服务业发展的定量研究——基于转变经济增长方式的研究视角

A Quantitative Study about the Development of the Modern Producer Service Industries——Based on the Perspective of Changing Style of Economic Growth Pattern

基于转变经济增长方式的研究视角,本文以VAR模型为基础,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,研究了经济增长的长期动态变动对现代生产性服务业发展的定量影响。脉冲响应分析的结果表明:短期内经济增长对生产性服务业的发展有较大的促进作用,而且随着时间推移,这种促进作用仍在延续。方差分析的结果表明:经济增长是解释现代生产性服务业发展的重要变量,而且对不同类型的生产性服务业的发展,表现出不同的促进作用。

In the view of economic growth pattern, the quantitative impact of the dynamic change of longterm economic growth on development of the modem producer response function （IRF） and variance decomposition based on service industries was studied using the impulse VAR model. IRF studies indicated that the eco- nomic growth not only has distinct impact to the development of the modem producer service industries in short term, but the promoting function is still continues as time goes on. Variance decomposition studies demonstra- ted that the economic growth is an important variable to explain the development of modem production services, as well as the different types of the modern producer service industries show different stimulative effect.