2011～2060年长江上游流域降水变化预估问题的探讨

Research on the precipitation of precipitation change with in Upper Yangtze River Basin during 2011～2060

对IPCC第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式集合平均制作的中国地区气候变化预估数据集(Version2.0)和长江上游流域逐日的降水观测数据进行了比较验证,结果表明:全球气候模式对长江上游流域的降水的时空变化具有一定的模拟能力,可以用来对长江上游流域未来的气候变化进行预估研究。在此基础上,进一步利用国家气候中心多模式模拟结果的降水数据开展了该流域未来50年降水的时间和空间分布变化的预估研究。结果表明,就2011～2060年整体而言,长江上游流域降水呈增加趋势。

A comparing verification is made between the Projection Data Set of Climate Change in China （Version2. 0） made with the ensemble average of 12 global climate models given in the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC（ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） and the observed daily precipitation data of the Upper Yangtze River Basin, and then, the result shows that the global climate model has a certain capacity for simulating the spatio-temporal change of the precipitation within the Upper Yangtze River Basin and can be applied to the study on the projection of the future climate change in the basin. On the basis of this, the projection of the spatio-temporal change of the precipitation in the basin during a period of 50 years is fur- ther studied with the precipitation data from the result of multi-model simulation made by the National Climate Center. The study result indicates that the precipitation in the Upper Yangtze Rive Basin shows an increasing trend during the overall pe- riod of 2011 - 2060.