基于线路风险的铁路救援资源优化配置

Optimal Allocation of Railway Rescue Resources Based on Line Risk

分析铁路线路致灾因素,构建铁路线路灾害风险评估指标体系。采用基于风险概率的风险评估方法对铁路线路灾害风险进行评估,得到铁路线路风险发生概率和风险等级,以此为依据抽象得到事故预测点及其风险程度。以救援资源储备点覆盖所有事故预测点为约束条件,以救援资源储备点的建设及运营成本最小和救援资源配送时间最短为目标函数,建立铁路救援资源优化配置模型。采用蚁群算法对模型求解,设计模型求解算法流程。以某铁路局线路和救援资源现状为例,采用上述方法进行线路风险评估和求解救援资源优化配置方案。结果表明,救援资源配置方案与现有资源配置情况相比,节约了救援资源储备点的建设及运营成本,缩短了平均救援资源配送时间。

Disaster causal factors for railway line were analyzed and railway line disaster risk assessment system was built. Railway line disaster risk was evaluated by risk probability based assessment method. The occurrence probability and level of railway line risk were obtained. On this basis, accident prediction points and its risk degree were abstracted. Railway rescue resource optimal allocation model was established, in which, rescue resource reserve site covering all accident prediction points was taken as the constraint, the minimum construction and operation costs of rescue resource reserve site as well as the shortest delivery time of rescue resources as objective functions. Ant colony algorithm was employed to solve the model and design the solution algorithm process. The line risk was assessed and the rescue resource optimal allocation was solved by the above method based on the status quo of a railway bureau＇s line risk and its rescue resources. The results show that, compared with the current situation of resource allocation, the rescue resource allocation scheme saves the construction and operation costs of rescue resource reserve site, and shortens the average delivery time of rescue resources.