交通运输资源配置模式及其Granger因果关系检验研究

Study on the Allocation Modes of Transportation Resources and Granger Causality Test

分析交通运输业优先、协调和滞后发展的3种交通运输资源配置模式;基于Granger因果关系检验方法,以1978—2007年我国交通运输业的统计数据为样本数据,对我国交通运输业与国民经济发展之间的因果关系进行分析,进而判断我国交通运输资源的配置模式。研究结果表明:我国交通运输业与国民经济发展之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并表现出交通运输业的发展促进了国民经济增长这一单向因果关系;国民经济的增长不是引起交通运输业发展的显著性因素,而交通运输业的发展是引起国民经济增长的显著性因素,这说明我国现今交通运输业的发展仍滞后于国民经济的发展。因此,在未来一段时期内,加快交通运输业的发展仍是实现我国国民经济协调、健康发展的重要战略举措。

By analyzing three different allocation modes of the transportation resources, such as, priority development, balanced development and lagging development, the paper analyses the causal relationship between China transportation industry and national economic development based on Granger causality anal- ysis with the sample data of the statistical data of China transportation industry from year 1978 to year 2007, and then allocation modes of transportation resources in China can be determined. The results show that China transportation industry has long-term stable balanced relationship with national economic development. What is more, transportation development is a significant factor to national economic development, otherwise is not true. It states that the present transportation development of China still lags behind national economic development. Therefore, for a period of time in the future, accelerating the development of China transportation industry is still an important strategic measure to coordinate the healthy development of national economic development in China.