基于系统动力学的工程材料经济采购量预测

The Forecasting of Engineering Material Economic Order Quantity Based on System Dynamics

采购管理是整个建筑项目管理的重要组成部分,降低工程材料采购成本直接决定企业利润的高低.为了有效预测工程材料经济采购量的大小,提出了一种新的计算方法,即运用系统动力学模型,并通过实例计算,获得最佳采购量.结果表明:与静态的数学方法相比,系统动力学模型对各采购量的预测结果较为准确,且更能全面的反应整个材料采购的整体动态情况,为正确的决策提供更先进的方法和依据,具有一定的参考意义.

Purchasing management is an important part of the project management of the whole construc- tion. The profits of the enterprise can be directly decided by reducing the material cost. A new kind of method has been proposed here, namely, system dynamics model, in order to effectively forecast the eco- nomic quantity of material purchase. And the best quantity of purchase has been got from the example com- putation. A certain significance of reference has been obtained from System Dynamics model. The result shows that compared with the static mathematic way, it is more accurate to use the System Dynamics model to forecast each purchase quantity. It can also comprehensively reflect the dynamic situation of the whole purchase and provide more advanced methods to make decision correctly.