青少年刑事罪犯数量的灰色预测及启示

The Grey Prediction of the Juvenile Criminal Quantity and the Enlightenment

我国青少年犯罪一直是一个比较严峻的社会问题。为此以1997一2010年人民法院审理的青少年犯罪刑事案件数据为依据,并利用GM(1,1)模型和GM(1,1)残差模型对我国青少年罪犯数量的时间序列进行了拟合、分析与预测。结果表明,GM(1,1)残差模型的拟合程度较高,说明我国青少年犯罪的数量还在增加。由此提出需要整合家庭、学校、社会和政府的力量来预防和治理青少年的犯罪。

Juvenile crime has been a very serious problem in our country.Based on the data of juvenile criminals in the criminal cases judged by the People＇s Court from 1997 to 2010,the time sequence of juvenile criminal quantity is fitted,analyzed and predicted by the use of GM（1.1）model and residual GM（1,1） model.The result of analysis indicates that the fitting precision of residual GM（1,1） model is higher,and juvenile crime quantity in our country is increasing.Meanwhile,it is pointed out that in order to prevent and administrate the juvenile crime,it is necessary to conduct comprehensive administration by integrating the powers of family,school,society and government.