1961—2011年珠三角城市群度日变化特征

The characteristics of degree days in the city group of Pearl River Delta delta during 1962-2011

根据1962—2011年珠三角城市群9个气象观测站逐日平均气温资料，采用度日模型和基准温度21．8℃，分析了珠三角城市群冷度日和热度日月际、年际及年代际的变化特征。结果表明，珠三角城市群冷度日集中在4一10月，以7月份最大，热度日集中在11月一次年3月，以1月份最大，各站冷度日和热度日的最大值差别均较小；冷度日呈明显的上升趋势，上升速率在18．8～87．900·d·10a。之间，最小值出现在1976年，最大值出现在1998年之后，热度日呈明显的下降趋势，下降速率在28．7～60．7℃-d-10a-1之间，最小值多出现在21世纪10年代，最大值多出现在1969年，20世纪80年代以来，冷度日上升和热度日下降的趋势均加快，佛山、深圳尤为明显。CDD与年平均气温的变化呈显著的正相关，HDD与年平均气温的变化呈显著的负相关。CDD、HDD的这些变化特征可能与年平均气温的上升有关，也可能与当地经济的快速发展有关。

Based on the mean daily temperature data of nine meteorological stations from 1962 to 2011, the characteristics of cold degree days （CDD） and heat degree days（HDD） were analyzed in the city group of pearl river delta by the way of degree days model. The results showed that CDD concentrated on seven months from April to October and CDD in July was maximum. HDD concentrated on five months from November to March and CDD in January was maximum. Maximum CDD and HDD among stations did not change obviously. Annual mean CDD had significant increase in the rate of 18.8-87.9 ~C .d/10a, which was minimum in 1976 and maximum in 1998. Annual mean HDD had significant decrease in the rate of 28.7-60.7 ~C .d/10a, which was minimum in 2010＇s and maximum in 1969. Since the nineteen eighties, increase of CDD and decrease of HDD had shown significant upward trends, most notably in Foshan and Shenzhen, which was correlated with the increase of annual temperature and local fast development of local economy.