中国经济转型收益及其度量:1978-2010

On the Profit and Measurements of China's Economic Transition:1978-2010

通过建立经济转型收益的测度指标体系,采用AHP统计方法,测度了1978-2010年中国经济转型收益的综合指数,并分析了经济转型收益的变动趋势及阶段性变化特征。研究发现:自经济转型以来,中国体制转型已取得巨大收益,结构转型仍需深化,发展方式转型和全球化转型是未来中国经济取得更大成就的关键。随着经济转型不断地向后期推进,加强国家主体在转型中的积极作用,发挥国家对于经济转型方向和过程的有效控制,是经济转型朝向有序、高效方向发展的保证。根据转型演化的实际轨迹调整转型重点,有利于在理性的基础上继续深化改革,促使经济转型的收益在长期中得到保持和增长。

By devising the measuring index system for economic transition profit （ETP） and employing the AHP statistical method, this paper measures the general index of ETP from 1978 to 2010 and analyzes the trends and characters of fluctuations of ETP in different historical periods. The results of the study indicate that though the institutional transformation has made tremendous gains since the economic restructuring, the structural transformation still needs to be deepened. The transformation of the development mode and globalization in transition is the key to the future greater achievements of China＇s economy. With the economic transition continuing to advance to the later stage, to strengthen the positive role of state and give the government full play in effective control of the direction and process of economic transformation can guarantee the orderly and efficient development of the economic transition. To adjust the key points according to the actual trace of transformation can benefit further deepening of the reform on the basis of rationality, promoting the maintenance and growth of ETP in the long run.