增加就业的政策选择:扩大政府支出还是为企业减负

The choice of policies in increasing employment:Expanding government expenditure or cutting tax

中国目前主要采用需求管理的反周期政策,但存在政策实施代价高等缺点,要实施供给管理,首先必须对供给管理政策效率进行评估.使用世界银行2005年对中国120个城市的调查数据,实证研究了减税和减轻企业非税负担对我国就业的影响,建立在回归基础上的估算表明:首先,相对于需求政策工具,减税能够明显降低促进就业的政策代价,并能避免需求政策工具对长期经济增长的负面影响;其次,改善政府治理、减少企业的各种非税负担是比减税更加有效的就业促进手段,以降低企业负担为主要内容的供给管理政策工具可以提高政府的就业政策效率.

To solve the serious situation of high unemployment, the Chinese government has enforced demand-side anti-cycle economic policies. But evidence shows that these policies are inefficient and cause other problems. To improve the efficiency of the government anti-cycle economic policies, the efficiency of the supply-side policies must first of all be evaluated. This paper studies the effects of the cut of tax and other firm＇s burden using the data of the investigation of China＇s 120 cities directed by the World Bank in 2005. The regression based estimation shows that employment is very sensitive to tax cut, which proves tax cut is an effective policy to increase employment. The estimation also shows that good governance is of great help to increase employment. It is imperative that we adjust the currently implemented policies and pay more attention on supply-side policies.