环境风险知觉的空间折扣模型

Spatial discount model in environmental risk perception

环境风险有着典型的空间特征,但空间距离对于风险知觉的影响机制与模式还缺乏深入研究.该研究从环境风险现实背景中提炼出科学化问题,提出了一个面向空间风险的偏好公理体系,推导出指数模式的概率-空间距离权衡关系,并用一个空间折扣模型刻画了个体的环境风险评价方式.模型表明,个体在心理上将远处的风险事件映射到近端位置,而空间距离导致一种风险感知的折扣效应,表现为个体降低了对环境后果严重性及其可能性的主观估计.该模型首次依托一般性的环境风险事件建立了空间距离与概率之间的显性联系,为空间背景下的风险研究提供了一个有用的框架.该研究也有助于理解社会个体的环境风险知觉方式,对于环境风险管理有着重要启示.

Environmental risk is typically characterized by its spatial distance, while the study on the mechanism and mode of how spatial distance influence risk perception is quite limited. This paper formulated a framework from the background of environmental risk, proposed an axiomatic set of preferences and derived a proposition of probability-spatial distance tradeoff, with a form of exponential function. Finally, a spatial discount model was built to describe the manner of individuals＇ environmental risk assessment. The model suggests that individuals psychologically map a remote risky event into a proximate one, while the spatial distance results in a discounting effect on the estimation of the seriousness of impact as well as the possibility of its occurrence. This model contributes in explicitly formalizing the connection between probability and spatial distance based on a general environmental risk, and providing a useful framework for considering risk in a spatial context. The research also helps to understand social individuals＇ manners of perceiving environmental risk, which has great relevance for environmental risk management as illustrated.