基于SD模型的外来龙头企业对村镇集群的驱动效应研究

The Study on the External Core Firm's Driven Effect on the Countryside Clusters Based on System Dynamics

用系统动力学的方法,并借鉴马歇尔对集群外部性的三种解释,从人力流、知识流、供应流三个方面分别建立因果回路图,分析外来龙头企业对村镇集群驱动效应的静态结构。以此为基础建立系统动力学流图模型并进行仿真,定量分析龙头企业转移程度、政府配套政策强度和集群的学习能力这三个控制变量对龙头企业驱动效应的影响方向及程度,旨在为西部地方政府应该如何理性引进龙头企业提供理论依据。

The system dynamics methodology is applied to analyze the external core firm＇ s driven effect on the countryside clusters in this paper. This study establishes dynamic models to detail the interactive relationships with three loops, including manpower flows, knowledge flows and supply flows, from the perspective of clusters＇ external balance of Mar- shall. Further more, a flow chart and system dynamics model is established and used for simulation. Finally, we can analyze how the core firm＇ s transferred degree, the local government＇ s complementary policy and the cluster＇ s learning ability affect the core firm＇ s driven effect, and then the western local govemment of China can know how to introduce the core firms rationally.